Bank Of Canada Rate Announcement

As expected, the Bank of Canada rate left its benchmark rate unchanged at 1% on December 4, 2012. Here are 2 things you need to know from the Bank of Canada rate announcement:

Global Economy

US economy grew gradually but is held back by the looming fiscal cliff which could push it back into a recession dragging Canada with it. China's economy is soft landing which is a good thing for Canada's resource economy (oil & minerals) whereas Europe is in recession. The global economic situation is negative which puts less pressure on increasing interest rates in the near future.

Canada's Economy

Canada's economy grew below expectations in the third quarter, housing market is cooling and household credit has slowed. The Canadian dollar continues to be strong and inflation is as expected. These indicators point to a slowing economy and the lack of need to raise interest rates in the near future.

The surprising statement was:"Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required". Based on the current economic situation around the world and Canada, there doesn't seem to be any requirement to increase interest rates, if anything, additional stimulus might be required.

For now, enjoy the variable mortgages and take advantage of the decreasing fixed mortgage rates.

To discuss your mortgage financing needs, whether you are buying a home, an investment property or renewing your mortgage, please contact me.

The End Of Variable Mortgages!

As of November 1, 2012, OSFI (Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions) requires lenders to qualify conventional and insured variable mortgages using Bank of Canada's benchmark rate.  Will this lead to the end of variable mortgages?Prior to November 1, 2012, all insured mortgages were required to qualify based on Bank of Canada's benchmark rate.  The new rules will restrict Canadians' ability to qualify for conventional variable mortgages and conventional shorter term (1-4 year) mortgages.

Here is an example:

Annual Income: $100,000 Mortgage Amount: $450,000 (assuming 20% downpayment) Annual Property Tax: $4,500 Annual Heating: $1,200 Monthly Car Lease & Personal Debt: $750

Prior to the new mortgage rules, the borrowers would have qualified for a variable mortgage using a 3 year rate which have put the GDS/TDS ratios at 28.67/37.67.  As of November 1, 2012, the GDS/TDS is 35.3/44.29 since the Bank of Canada benchmark rate (currently 5.24%) is used to qualify.

Is This The End Of Variable Mortgages?

As you can see, the borrowers will be forced to take a fixed mortgage for 5 year term or longer since they can't qualify for a variable mortgage.  My issue with the new mortgage rules is how will anyone qualify for a variable mortgage or fixed mortgage of 1-4 year term when the benchmark rate is at 7-8% as rates normalize in the future? Having borrowers lock into longer terms than they need to might result in paying IRD (interest rate differential) penalty to get out of the mortgage which can be exorbitant.

The solution to this issue is putting more downpayment if possible to get the mortgage qualification ratios in line.

To discuss your downpayment options and how to qualify for short term fixed mortgage or variable mortgage, please contact me.

 

Variable Mortgage Holders Celebrate!

The US Federal Reserve announced on September 13, 2012 that it will embark on a third round of stimulus (QE3) to improve the employment numbers in the US.  What does this announcement have to do with Canadian mortgage rates?Mr. Carney, the governor of the Bank of Canada, has to keep the benchmark rate which sets prime rate relatively close the US Federal Reserve benchmark rate, otherwise the Canadian dollar would appreciate and have downward pressure on Canadian exports due to the higher cost of Canadian goods.  This would be bad for the Canadian economy and force the Bank of Canada to hold its benchmark rate at or close to its current level to late 2015 along with its US counterpart.

If you are variable mortgage holder who has a prime minus mortgage, this announcement is great news since prime would probably not move dramatically in the next while.  However, the risk is as central bankers "print" money to stimulate the economy, inflation will become an issue sometime in the future.  The message here is to take advantage of your current variable mortgage but plan and prepare for the future.

To discuss how you can shave 3 years off your mortgage amortization, please click here. To contact me, please click here.

Is It Time To For 10 Year Mortgages?

As a mortgage professional who enjoys numerical analyses and economic discussions, I have had numerous conversations with financial planners, colleagues and clients of mine regarding the direction of interest rates in the future. What's happening in Europe? What if Greece pulls out of the Euro zone? Impact of US dollar on Canadian dollar? Inflation? Mr. Carney and Mr. Flaherty warnings regarding increased household debt?

The above video captures the compelling argument that now more then ever is a golden opportunity to lock into a 10 year fixed mortgage.

I really hope that as many people as possible see this post. I think there is a small window of opportunity since rates may rise at anytime.  Please share this post via social media. Afterall knowledge is power and making decisions based on data is powerful.

Please feel free to contact me to discuss your questions or comments regarding the 10 year mortgage.

Variable Mortgages Are Not Portable!

Variable mortgages up to late summer of 2011 were very attractive due to the large discount off prime at that time (prime less 0.75%).  Many homeowners and real estate investors took advantage of getting a variable mortgage on their home or real estate investment properties.  The mortgage product is portable and assumable which means the homeowner or real estate investor can port (transfer) the mortgage to a new home as long they qualify and it's done within a certain period of time between selling one property and buying another (typically 90 to 120 days). As for being assumable, the mortgage can be taken over by the buyer should they qualify.There is a catch however when porting a variable mortgage.  Unless the exact mortgage amount is transferred over to the new property, lenders will reset the rate to whatever the market rate is at that time.  Here is an example, let's say the borrower got a variable mortgage at prime-0.75% and the balance at the time of moving is $250,000. They are buying a home which will require the mortgage amount to increase to $300,000.  The borrower can consider 2 options:

• Port the mortgage of $250,000 and obtain a line of credit for the difference, in this case $50,000 in order to maintain the prime-0.75% on the variable mortgage
• Obtain a new $300,000 variable mortgage at today's rates (prime-0.1% to prime+0.1%) with the same lender without incurring a penalty

In the above case, it's clear that keeping the mortgage at prime-0.75% is a wise option.  It's important to understand the fine print of the mortgage and and discuss the available options with your mortgage professional.

As for the blog post title, yes variable mortgages are portable, but with a catch!

To discuss your personal mortgage financing situation, please contact me.

Do US Elections Impact Canadian Mortgage Rates?

Over the last month or so, I have heard some mortgage brokers promoting the 4 year fixed rates to their clients since it coincides with the US presidential cycle based on the argument that in US election years, mortgage rates remain low for the incumbent President to be re-elected.  As a mortgage broker who is driven by data and facts, I had to do some research to justify these statements.Before we dive into data, let's understand what drives mortgage rates:

• Fixed rates are driven by the bond market which moves up and down based on economic news. Good news drive the bond yields higher, therefore increasing rates and vice versa; bad economic news drive the bond yields lower therefore reducing fixed mortgage rates.
• Variable mortgages are driven by prime rate which is set by the Bank of Canada (independent of government) and the discounts on prime are driven by liquidity and credit risk factors. In good times, variable mortgages were at prime-0.8%, during the financial meltdown of late 2008, variable mortgages were at prime+1%

Based on the above 2 points I don't see how US elections can drive the bond market or influence the decisions of the Bank of Canada.  The only connecting factor is the Bank of Canada benchmark rate has to remain relatively close to the US Federal Reserve benchmark rate.  If Canada's benchmark rate was much higher, the Canadian dollar would rise in value negatively affecting exports and would dampen the economy.

Let's look at the numbers.  Over the last 25 years, fixed rates on US re-election years: 2012, 2004, 1996 and 1988 the fixed rates based on the chart do not show a dip in these specific years.  The data shows that interest rates have been decreasing over the last 25 years.

Finally, when someone makes a statement, always ask for data to back up their claim. It's easy to make generic statements.

To discuss your mortgage situation and to make decisions based on data and facts, please contact me.

Not Another Referendum!

The word "referendum" was used again this week!

2 Factors That Can Affect Your Home Value

Toronto and GTA's real estate values have increased significantly over the last 10 years.  The prices continue to increase as the global economy struggles to emerge out of the slowdown since late 2008.  There are 2 factors that can negatively affect the housing market in Toronto, GTA as well as Canada: Interest rate and/or unemployment spike.

1/ Interest Rate Spike

For the last 3 years, Canadian homeownerns and real estate investors have enjoyed historically low interest rates which have resulted in record sales and prices.  Interest rates have remained low to stimulate consumer spending and promote GDP growth.  As Canadians reach record debt levels (approximately $1.50 of debt to $1 earned), Canadians are running out of steam for further debt accumulation. Many Canadians have fixed mortgages in the 3.3%-3.8% and variable mortgages at the prime minus level.

In order to save the global economy from a depression, governments around the world took on aggressive stimulus (printing money) since late 2008 which will result in high inflation sometime in the future.  As inflation becomes the primary objective of governments, interest rates will have to rise to control and moderate inflation.  Canada is already experiencing high inflation numbers, however the Bank of Canada is choosing to keep its benchmark rate low due to the uncertainty originating out of Europe.

A spike in interest rates would effect Canadians since mortgages will renew at higher interest rates and unsecured loans would cost more.  Based on August 2011 data, the affordability index in Toronto for 2 storey homes and bungalows is at 61.4% and 51.9% respectively (http://goo.gl/8rK5B). If one assumes that an income earner is taxed at 40%, it means that in order to buy a 2 storey or bungalow in Toronto, 2 incomes are required. Condos are a more affordable option in Toronto at 34.2%.

A spike in interest rates which diminish the ability of many to qualify for a mortgage especially insured since qualification is based on posted rates.  Demand would therefore be reduced since less buyers can qualify for a mortgage.

The main point to take away from this post is to have a plan regarding mortgage/debt paydown and plan to renew ones mortgage at a 6% level.  For more information, click here.

My next post will discuss unemployment spike.