Interest Rate Hikes Are Done: 3 Things You Need To Know

Interest rate hikes have come to an end, and it's essential to understand the implications of this development. In this blog post, we'll explore three crucial questions about interest rates moving forward into 2024. As a real estate broker in Toronto, I'll provide you with insights and analysis to help you navigate the changing landscape. So, let's dive in!

What Does This Mean for Homeowners, Buyers, and Sellers?

Based on what economists are saying, rate hikes have reached their peak, accompanied by concrete data showing a slowdown in the economy. As we observe contracting GDP and a rise in unemployment, it's crucial to understand how this impacts the real estate market. For homeowners, this means a steady environment with predictable interest rates. Buyers may find it favorable to enter the market as rates stabilize, while sellers should be prepared for a potentially more balanced market.

When Will Interest Rates Come Down?

This is the million dollar question for many. Economists believe that interest rates will start to come down in the second half of 2024. There are three Bank of Canada rate announcement dates to keep an eye on April 10th, June 5th, and July 24th. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will gradually cut the benchmark rate, providing some relief to borrowers. However, it's important to stay updated and monitor these announcements to make informed decisions.

When Will the Real Estate Market Pick Up?

The timing of the real estate market's recovery is uncertain and hinges on the balance between buyer and seller actions. Will buyers and sellers take action in the spring market of 2024, driven by concrete data of a slowing economy and declining inflation? Alternatively, will they wait for the first Bank of Canada rate cut announcements or statements? The spring market of 2024 will serve as a critical period to assess market dynamics. While the market may remain slow in the coming weeks leading up to the Christmas break and New Year, it's difficult to predict what will happen beyond that point. The first move—whether by the Bank of Canada or buyers and sellers themselves—will shape the industry's future landscape.

Interesting Fact: Inflation and the Bank of Canada's Role

Inflation in 2023 stood at 3.1%, but if we strip out mortgage interest from this equation, inflation would sit at 2.2%. This raises an intriguing question: is the Bank of Canada contributing to inflation or solving the problem? It's food for thought and a topic worth exploring further.

Conclusion

Navigating the real estate market amidst changing interest rates and economic conditions requires careful consideration. Whether you're a home buyer, seller, or investor, it's essential to understand how these developments impact your unique situation. If you're unsure about what steps to take, don't hesitate to reach out to me. As a real estate broker, I'm here to assist and provide personalized advice tailored to your needs. The future of the real estate market is uncertain, but with the right information and support, you can make informed decisions.

Thank you for taking the time to read this blog post. Stay tuned for more updates and valuable insights. Until next time!

If you have any questions or would like to discuss your personal real estate situation, feel free to reach out to me. I'm here to help.

September 2023 Toronto Real Estate Market Analysis

In this comprehensive analysis, we highlight four key observations that shed light on the current state of the real estate market.

1. The Sales Activity has been Decreasing

In May 2023, there were just over 9,000 sales, whereas September had 4,600 sales. That is a 50 % drop. Now typically, we would see an uptick in sales in the month of September, because that would be the beginning of the fall real estate market. However, we did not see that. The actual numbers for August were higher in sales figures compared to the month of September. This speaks to the headwind the real estate market is facing due to the lack of affordability, which is driven by higher interest rates.

2. Active and New Listing has been Increasing

The number of active and new listings has been increasing faster compared to the number of sales. This leads to higher months of inventory: It will take longer for these properties to sell and eventually as more supply sits on the market, there will be downward pressure on prices moving forward.

3. Affordability Challenge

We have had 53,000 sales up till September 2023. In the greater Toronto area, 82 % of those of sales have been under $1.5 million which again speaks to the lack of affordability due to higher interest rates.

4. Lowest Sales since 2010

Overall, 2023 looks like it has the lowest sales since 2010. Last year we had 75,000 sales. So far in this year, we've had 53,000 and it looks like we will end up around 70-72,000.

Should You Renovate or Buy a New House?

This is the million dollar question. Hopefully it won’t cost a million to renovate your house!!

Are you outgrowing your space and wondering if you should renovate or a buy a new house? I'll walk you through 6 factors to consider if you renovate your house and 6 factors if you buy a new house.

Let’s take a look at factors to consider for each scenario. First renovate your house:

1. Timeline: Allow for adequate time for getting designs, permits and renovations completed. This could take up anywhere from a year to a year and a half depending on the extent of the renovations. I am referring to gutting the house, doing an addition, adding a third floor, underpinning the basement….major work and not cosmetic such as redoing a few bathrooms

2. Budget: Whatever you budget for add another 25-30%. There are always surprises, additional issues to address and changing cost of labour and material

3. Contractor: I highly, let me say that again, highly recommend you pick the contractor early in the process. You might be asking how if you don’t have designs completed for the contractor to quote. Ask for referrals from friends and family who have done extensive renovations, interview the contractor, search them online and ask for past clients references. It’s important to have the contractor provide input to the design process since they are responsible for doing the renovations. Anything can be designed on paper, however if it’s difficult to build, it will add significant costs

4. Accommodations: This is something to plan and budget for. If your renovations will take 8-12 months, account for renting another home while renovating your house 

5. Location: You get to stay in the area you have roots in

6. Long Term Home: The reward of this process is you get to design and build your long term home. The finishes, the features will make this a long term home for your family. A place to entertain, host and live.

Ok let’s look at buying a new house:

1. Buy & sell: depending on market conditions you will either have to buy first then sell or vice versa. Be prepared to declutter your current home and get it ready for sale

2. Moving: Decluttering, purging, packing, moving and unpacking with young children can be a challenge. Speaking from personal experience, I find building a house from scratch is a lot easier than moving with young kids but it had to be done

3. Features & Finishes: It might not be the perfect house in terms of wall colours or choice of tiles, however minor cosmetic changes can be done before you move in or down the line

4. Finances: Some of the costs to consider are land transfer taxes, legal fees, selling fees, moving fees and any mortgage penalty fees

5. Neighbourhood: You might buy a house in the desired school catchment area where you want your kids to go to school to

In summary, if you live in a condo which is your first home, buying a house is pretty much your only option since you are outgrowing the space. If you live in a house then either option could work for you. It really depends on what your preference is to love it or sell it.

If you have outgrown your space and are looking to move a bigger family home reach out. I have helped many clients and have personally moved with young kids.